U.S. leadership position threatened

I was reading and article bt Bill Emmott in The Times from October 24, 2011 and it is still actual. That makes me think that yesterday news are still today and tomorrow´s news. We usually think time pass so fast, but things are not changing at the same spead.

The mentioned article has as headline "Why we should fear America’s China-bashing", and it is explaining the    tough "fight" for being the first world economy. But, what it really called my attention is the sentence at the very end mentioned that "the euro will determine whether the world is going to face another financial crash". Do you think the euro is able to assume this heavy  responsibility? I will defend it but we need measures that really help the economy rise again.


In the current financial situation, protectionist measures as trade barriers are being raised and if you compare U.S. and Chinses growth on GDP or size of their economies, data scare. 10 years they predict. Lets keep the yesterday news on mind just to say, there it was.

14N: There is not "them"

Amid of the harshest recession in the European Union, there are countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal or Italy thaat cannot bear more auterity measures. Today, 14 of Novemember, 2012 thier citizens are striking in the streets fighting for their human rights.

Greece
Eurozone is standby the resolution of IMF and Eurogroup to reach an agreement over two-year extension debt in Greece. What Greece is supposed to do is to get its debt down to a 120% of the GDP by 2020 (or what they are trying now until 2022).

Also, goverment is seeking to avoid the €5bn default thought T-bill auction, but as the FT exposed "Greek banks expected to buy the issue can only raise about €3.5bn of collateral acceptable to the European Central Bank".

Greece is still the biggest problem of the Eurozone, but Eurozone finance ministers should release the next aid by November the 20th.

Spain
The Spanish situation is not getting better either. Evictions have provokes two suicides already from vulnerable homeworkers to pay thier mortages. Central government is taking action to limit the foreclosures for two years. This is linked with the debate over banking reform and the so-called "bad bank" which will start working at the end of November with €5bn. Reuters explained that "the bad bank will initially receive €45bn in assets from the four nationalized institutions".

Besides that, the uncertainty over the bailout is still worring investors. On the other side, Spanish citizens will not see many changes in Goverment policy at least until the unveil of the budget deficit target (that it must reach a 5.5%).

The 14N is the second general strike in less than a year in Spain. The desesperate situation in Spain is aggravated by the 25% unemployment rate.

Portugal 
After the visit of Angela Merkel to Lisbon last Monday the 12th of November, 2012, anti-austerity protesters held placards telling her she was not welcome, as Aljazeera showed in a report. Besides that, some activist (4,226) wrote a letter addressed to Ms. Merkel where it explains that taking more loans from the Troika is not the solution for Portugal. Portuguese video information prohibited in Germany here.

Portugal also reaches a 16% unemployment rate, and to impose more austerity measures will only produce a deeper recession.

Italy
Italians have also similar problems. Now  Italy is about "to indict five S&P employees and two from Fitch Ratings for market manipulation" connected to their downgrades of Italy’s credit rating, according to the Telegraph information.

However, Mario Monti efforts seems to produce positive effects by 2013, according to Bloomberg with  less deep recession compared with 2012 (a GDP drop of 0.5% in 2013 against 2.5% of 2012) due to a reduction in the unemployment rate.

                                         -------------------------------------------------

All this information regarding to the most affected countries of the Eurozone does not mean "they" are the only ones to be hit by the financial crisis. Specially because this is a global crisis. today, 14N there are 23 countries demostratiing against austerity measures (France, Belguim and Germany among them). As the BBC news is showing today, UK will recover slowly from recession. However, according to King: "Output might shrink again in the last quarter of 2012".

This is not a battle between the South and the North European countries. I believe in a common solution, with deeper integration among all of Us. Perhaps, more regulation over the market will be the solution, to cede a bit  of sovereignty to the Union, or to create the banking union, etc. There are many possibilities on the table, they (We) only need to get an agreement all together. "There is just no work" information of BBC about today demostration, specially in Spain and Portugal. The problem is that demostration will not change anything about the current situation, unfortunately.

 In the overview, I will add that other countries in the world are also suffering the consequences of the global financial crisis, as Japan or U.S.

Many reforms, no positive results

Almost one year after Mariano Rajoy was elected president for Spain, there has been many major domestic and international changes. Spain's center-right conservatives swept convincingly into power as it usually happens when a financial crisis threatens the economy. Since then, drastic economic reforms has taken place in the country, specially fiscal and structural adjustments. Spanish´s Prime Minister said last 31st of October to Reuters that “Spain will come out of its current crisis through a combination of domestic reforms and policy decisions taken at a European level”. Is it the request of the bailout one of them? Lets analyze the situation.

The Spanish government is set to pass 43 new laws to reform the economy within the next six months. And the new budget entails 58% spending cuts and 42% increased taxes, according to the information published in Russia Today last 27th, September. Some of these austerity measures include reducing €10m spending in education and health, increase of taxes (for example up to 21% in the value added tax) and fees or the controversial labor reform. Spanish government is willing to reach an objective target of 5.5% of the GDP with a reduction in expenditure of more than two thirds. This will deposit a total revenues of €30.3m (GBP24.19m) in 2012.

However, in the European framework there is not such a positive view of the Spanish recovery in a short term, and many external pressures are pushing Spain to ask for a bailout of its economy. Risk premium of Spanish 10 years yields bond is still above 400 basis points compared with German bunds. Besides that, foreign direct investment (FDI) was reduced to GBP15.83bn in 2011 half of the amount when compared to the previous year according to the World Bank. Even when the Spanish Minister of Economy came to London last 11th of October to ask for foreign investment, it has not been any change since then.

This information, along with the reduction of exports and imports, has made Spain to loss competitiveness in a international market. Spanish´s balance of payments has a negative commercial balance of €-3.1m (GBP-2.42m) according to data provided by the National Statistic Office (Aug,2012). The World Economic Forum expresses this insufficient competitiveness in 2012 because “the high levels of public debt coupled with low growth. [...] And political gridlock in some European countries stirred financial markets’ concerns about sovereign default and the very viability of the euro”. Spain is ranked 36 in the global competitiveness index with a 4.60 score (where Switzerland ranks first with 5.72 score).

Concerns in the eurozone countries have reached to Brussels, where it has announced to Spain and Italy the creation of a “Super commissioner” figure to exercise tighter control over budget as it was reported in the Spanish television last Thursday 29th, October 2012. Mr. Mario Draghi has made clear that they will do whatever will be necessary to keep the eurozone together, driving towards a greater integration, as the only safe way to protect the single currency.

Meanwhile, Spanish economy continues into recession, as the annual variation of the GDP represents in  the third quarter of 2012 (-1.6% in the Q3/12 compared to -1.3% in the Q2/12). This result is a consequence of a “negative contribution of domestic demand, partly offset by a positive contribution from external demand”, according to the National Institute of Statistics of Spain (press release 30th October, 2012). In the same direction, unemployment has increased until the 25% of the population on the 3Q/12, and the government gross debt reaches a general amount of €87.9bn (GBP70.9bn) in 2012 according to OECD data.

This data makes people wonder why Spain has not yet asked for the bailout from the EU. However, the decision is not an easy one. The main problem is the huge amount of debt from financial institutions. The global crisis of 2007 hit specially Spain because the great bubble housing speculation, where banks gave many loans and credits to people who could not return the payment. Now, institutions as Santander, BBVA or Bankia face an important recapitalization of their public debts, through cuts in Spanish population budgets.

While there has been many reductions of social expenditures since December 2011, Spain is running out of money and places to get it from. The Spanish government is now resorting to taking money out of the pension funds. This is one of the biggest problems. There are millions of Spanish families without any member of the family working, many are living with just the pension of their grandparents. This situation is exacerbated since family cannot pay the mortgages and banks are evicting 500 families a day.

The controversy is made by two sides of the question. If Spain requests for the bailout will imply tougher measures from Brussels. However, if Spain does not reach a deficit of 5.3% of the GDP by the end of 2012 it will have  no choice, but to ask for bailout. The social impact on Spanish population will mean more cuts, reduction on pension funds, frozen wages and increase on inflation (what is it already at 3.5%). On the other side, the bailout will go to recapitalize the banks, and not to the wealth of the population, who will suffer even more the consequences.

A year ago, monetary union was destiny to die due to European banking meltdown and the controversy about the measures in the single currency. Today, when a possible debt forgiveness for Greece is on the table along with some more austerity measures, the ECB is willing to buy unlimited Spanish bonds in the second market. Although Germany has the last word, it seems like the single currency is being saved for an imminent break down. Now the question is, what conditions is Brussels going to impose to Spain in the new “package” of measures for bailout? And even more, what consequences will imply for the Spanish population?

LIMUN 2013

LIMUN, the largest annual university-based Model United Nations conference in Europe, presented yesterday in HULT university in London its Secretarian team for 2013. The main theme this year it is the conference about the MDGs that will take place next February from the 15th to the 17th in London. 

Secretarian Team 2013

Press Team 2013

Social crisis, instead

 Since "networks are part of our reality" (M. Castells), I will perform this role sharing some ideas I have gotten from Manuel Castells, today at London School of Economics (LSE). Under the title: "The crisis always rings twice", Manuel Castells gave us an answer about how the financial crisis has caused. He explained that it is/was "a combination of new technology, through a process of deregulation and reckless of financial managers".

Financial system is built in a sense that people do not mind. As Manuel Castells explained, reffeing to the action we are taking to solve the financial crisis, "we save the banks, but let the people fall". He also interpreted the current crisi of the power´s system as one where the "elites have lost the capacity to rule the financial system".

Furthermore, there is a more important cause for the moment we are living in: a social crisis. Since every economic process implies a social process, here it is the explanation of how people interact and organize through the network and the implication this has to our lifes. Manuel Castells refers the networks as an important basis of the self in what he calls it "the real virtuality", where information is the cornerstone of humanity.

He links the social process to the fact that the economic crisis has lead us to a social crisis, pointing out the question: "who has lent money to a non-family member? not many nowadays", was his answer. And, who will be able to work less if they will be paid less? A positive answer of the former question is what he describes as "post capitalism" or "non-capitalism" society. That it will probably happen soon.

However, meanwhile there is a process of marginalization. Here, the case of Greece came out as "they are going through a process oof desistegration on its political system". Also, the Spanish indignadoswas  represented by the statemet of "when systems block, the new social opinion is formed".

Therefore, he made sense of the fact that the economic crisis is not over, but there exists a political crisis to legitimacy that has been followed by a social crisis where: "European identity will work fine as long as there is not crisis".

Everything here emphasize the current economic and political crisis with a new aspect: a social crisis. However, it was his last comment what called my attention: "the non-global global crisis", where global economy is growing.

That´s wrong folks!

When you look yourself in the mirror, you can have an image of want you see on it, maybe what you want to see from it, but perhaps it is not the real version of the fact. This is not the way to look at things to find the true reality.

Democracy, good word, but what does democracy really mean?. The closest example that we have in the world is just a mere reflection of the real one (where people can make choices and change things).
Today, in the London School of Economics (LSE), the Spanish Minister of Economy and Competitiveness, Luis De Guindos, came to explain "The Spain´s Economic Strategy". I still wondering was it is...

Nevertheless, for those who were not able to get in the conference, we stayed outside to, at least, have the possibility to hear some answers that could make the Spanish situation a bit more clear in our minds (not just some nice words to make us believe things are better than they really are...). In the door, I met some nice people from the 15-M movement (more info in twitter: @15mlondon) who, at the song of "They called it democracy, but it is not!", were raising their voices to be heard (because the is no other way). "Nicely" one of the Minister´s bodyguard told us to move back because the Minister was not going to answer our demands. Well, since at least we have some freedom of expression I would like to raise my voice as well to ask the questions for what I have no asnswer (and perhaps nor they do):

-What action is Spain finally going to take regarding to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM)?
-Why is there a contradiction about the amount of money Spain is supposed to ask to the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Wyman report?
-How and when are we [all, Spanish and the rest] going to see any good outcome of the economic policies taken in Spain to the economic recovery?
-Why to fund financial institutions with public money when the people can not even eat?

I can just say that the world we are living in, the things are happening and what we are doing to solve them are all wrong. There is not the way just to speech nice words and to wait results to come out, neither is the solution to shout and complain without trying to do something else. We have to work together, build something from what we have and try to develop it in the best way possible. But confrontation is not a solution.

We (the people) have the voices to fight from our rights, but (as this is not a real democracy) we can not change things that easily. In this capitalist (still) world only the powerful ones make the decisions. We have of course to use our voices, demostrate is necessary to be heard, but we should use them to build something else greater from the facts. Raise your voice, demostrate but do something else. They have to know we are here for more than just complaining. All together we can do it, because we also have the power, and Spain is not for sale!, we are here and we should defend it!

Defenders of... what?

Is the media an instrument for the government and big corporations to achieve their personal interest or is it really a powerful weapon to unmask them? The sad truth is that the media has become, a part from a few exceptions I will mention later, a easy tool for big conglomerates to get profit. The only interest here is: money, and on the bottom of the scale: look for the truth or merely inform.

Shadows of liberty, a documentary directed by Jean-Philippe Tremblay, exhibits the crisis in the US media through history. There are many scandals of goverment and large companies that, as Friedman said in the documentary (if I remember correctly) , if a news does not appear in the mainstream media as The New York Times, The Guardian... is like it has never happened. So, how can we (the journalists) keep the integrity of our professional values if there are contradictory interest behind? Where are people like Woodward and Bernstein nowadays? Oh right! they are refugees in an embassy to flight against the White House... (I will leave aside this lastest example since it is a hard to speak case, and everybody has their own opinion. But as one section Shadows of liberty alludes related to similar subjects in the past: "kill the messenger").

Returning to the docuemtnary, I would like to congratulate Tremblay and his team for brighing to light those hidden interests of big conglomerates and defending the truth of the facts even at the prospect of losing your jobs, because people and ideas like yours makes me believe again in the profession I chose to study.

“If you're not careful, the newspapers will have you hating the people who are being oppressed, and loving the people who are doing the oppressing.”  

Malcolm X